Managing Complex Crises through the Lens of Intuitive Expertise: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Perspective.

Journal article


Okoli, J. 2021. Managing Complex Crises through the Lens of Intuitive Expertise: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Perspective. International journal of mass emergencies and disasters. 39 (3), pp. 394-416.
AuthorsOkoli, J.
Abstract

This theoretical paper draws extensively on the extant literature to examine the role of expert intuition in the management of non-routine crises within a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. It follows a theoretically driven inductive design to explore the construct of intuitive expertise, with a specific focus on high-risk domains. Methodically, the paper builds on the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) theory to explore how experienced crisis managers perform complex tasks with the aid of their tacit and intuitive knowledge. Evidence suggests that experienced decision-makers are more likely to solve time-pressured tasks using their intuitive mode as the default strategy, only switching to a deliberative mode when the proposed course(s) of action require some form of justification or where pattern recognition has proven insufficient. The paper also develops a four-dimensional framework that describes both individual and situational factors that generally influence decision-making dynamics in a VUCA crisis environment. A synthesis of the literature results in the emergence of four theoretical propositions, with implications discussed for crisis and emergency practice. A key recommendation is to integrate the NDM sub-discipline into the field of crisis management, with suggestions that such integration may lead to significant improvements in crisis response effectiveness.

Keywordsnon-routine crises; time-pressured tasks; VUCA crisis environment
Year2021
JournalInternational journal of mass emergencies and disasters
Journal citation39 (3), pp. 394-416
PublisherInternational Research Committee on Disasters
Web address (URL)http://www.ijmed.org/articles/816/
Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
Controlled
Publisher's version
File Access Level
Controlled
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online01 Nov 2021
Publication process dates
Accepted2021
Deposited04 Nov 2022
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https://repository.derby.ac.uk/item/9qx49/managing-complex-crises-through-the-lens-of-intuitive-expertise-a-naturalistic-decision-making-perspective

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