The role of selected pre-match covariates on the outcome of One-day International (ODI) cricket matches

Journal article


Kayla McEwan, Lee Pote, Scott Nicholls, Sarah Radloff and Candice Christie 2023. The role of selected pre-match covariates on the outcome of One-day International (ODI) cricket matches. South African Journal of Sports Medicine. 35 (1), pp. 1-6. https://doi.org/10.17159/2078-516x/2023/v35i1a15012
AuthorsKayla McEwan, Lee Pote, Scott Nicholls, Sarah Radloff and Candice Christie
Abstract

Background: The identification of key factors that systematically influence a team’s success is important and has led to the application of statistical models in sport. Predicting the outcome of a One Day International (ODI) cricket match, using only pre-match covariates, has been minimally investigated.

Objectives: This research sought to investigate the impact that venue, toss outcome, toss decision, and match type have on the chances of winning an ODI match.
Methods: A total of 1228 men’s international ODI matches were analysed. A logistic regression model was used to identify the significance of these pre-match covariates on the result of the matches.

Results: The results varied across all teams, suggesting that there are individualised factors driving these differences and that generalising the impact pre-match covariates have in every team is unrealistic. New Zealand and India displayed a significant home advantage effect, whereas Australia had a strong tendency towards a significant disadvantage when they won the toss. However, for most teams, toss outcome, toss decision, and match type did not significantly impact the outcome of an ODI match.

Conclusion: New Zealand and Australia were the most predictable teams, whereas South Africa and Pakistan were regarded as unpredictable when pre-match covariates were used to forecast the outcome of their ODI matches.

Keywordscricket; match type; toss decision; toss outcome; venue
Year2023
JournalSouth African Journal of Sports Medicine
Journal citation35 (1), pp. 1-6
PublisherSouth African Sports Medicine Association
ISSN2078-516X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.17159/2078-516x/2023/v35i1a15012
Web address (URL)https://doi.org/10.17159/2078-516X/2023/v35i1a15012
Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
Open
Output statusPublished
Publication dates05 Jun 2023
Publication process dates
Deposited20 Apr 2023
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