Methods for disentangling period and cohort changes in mortality risk over the twentieth century: comparing graphical and modelling approaches
|Jones, P., Minton, J. and Bell, A.
This paper explores changes in age--specific mortality risk across periods and cohorts during the twentieth century in the developed world. We use and compare two approaches---one graphical (Lexis plots) and one statistical (an adapted Hierarchical age--period--cohort model)---that control out overall trends in mortality, to focus on discrete changes associated with specific events. Our analyses point to a number of key global and local events in the Twentieth Century associated with period and/or cohort effects, including the World Wars and the influenza pandemic of 1918--19. We focus particularly on the UK but look at other countries where results are particularly noteworthy, either substantively or methodologically. We also find a decline in mortality in many western countries, specifically in the 1948 birth cohort, which may be associated with the development of post--war social welfare policies, the economic investment in Europe by the United States, the accessibility of antibiotics such as penicillin, and, in the UK, the founding of the NHS.
|Age-period-cohort; Lexis surface; Mortality; Social epidemiology; Welfare state
|Quality & Quantity
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
|Web address (URL)
|Accepted author manuscript
File Access Level
|27 Aug 2022
|Publication process dates
|12 Jul 2022
|30 Aug 2022
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