Methods for disentangling period and cohort changes in mortality risk over the twentieth century: comparing graphical and modelling approaches
Journal article
Authors | Jones, P., Minton, J. and Bell, A. |
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Abstract | This paper explores changes in age--specific mortality risk across periods and cohorts during the twentieth century in the developed world. We use and compare two approaches---one graphical (Lexis plots) and one statistical (an adapted Hierarchical age--period--cohort model)---that control out overall trends in mortality, to focus on discrete changes associated with specific events. Our analyses point to a number of key global and local events in the Twentieth Century associated with period and/or cohort effects, including the World Wars and the influenza pandemic of 1918--19. We focus particularly on the UK but look at other countries where results are particularly noteworthy, either substantively or methodologically. We also find a decline in mortality in many western countries, specifically in the 1948 birth cohort, which may be associated with the development of post--war social welfare policies, the economic investment in Europe by the United States, the accessibility of antibiotics such as penicillin, and, in the UK, the founding of the NHS. |
Keywords | Age-period-cohort; Lexis surface; Mortality; Social epidemiology; Welfare state |
Year | 2022 |
Journal | Quality & Quantity |
Journal citation | pp. 1-21 |
Publisher | Springer |
ISSN | 1573-7845 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01498-3 |
Web address (URL) | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11135-022-01498-3 |
Funder | British Academy |
Accepted author manuscript | License File Access Level Open |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 27 Aug 2022 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 12 Jul 2022 |
Deposited | 30 Aug 2022 |
https://repository.derby.ac.uk/item/97x4q/methods-for-disentangling-period-and-cohort-changes-in-mortality-risk-over-the-twentieth-century-comparing-graphical-and-modelling-approaches
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Accepted author manuscript
jones-minton-bell-2022-period-cohort-mortality.pdf | ||
License: CC BY 4.0 | ||
File access level: Open |
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