Interoperability challenges in NATO’s risk management: Insights from procedural and conceptual analysis

Although a cornerstone of NATO’s collective defence strategy, interoperability of risk management in military planning and decision-making remains largely underexplored. This paper examines the procedural interoperability of risk management within NATO’s doctrinal framework, key strategic documents, and operational-level standard operating procedures through the use of a bespoke four-quadrant model for mapping conceptual understanding, NATO’s own system for measuring degrees of interoperability, and two key challenges to the achievement of interoperability as set out in research by Saikou Y. Diallo and his colleagues. Findings reveal inconsistencies in risk conceptualization across NATO authoritative documents. A divide is highlighted between risk defined as a conceptual framework and risk defined prescriptively as a method of measurement. While NATO doctrine emphasizes procedural alignment in achieving interoperability, the findings reveal that this is not current practice. By integrating contemporary risk science and aligning risk management within NATO’s decision-making and planning processes, this study identifies pathways for enhancing procedural coherence. The paper argues that embedding risk management principles into NATO’s capstone doctrine and the two key doctrines for planning of operations and conducting operations, rather than creating standalone doctrine, offers a viable solution. This research contributes to the broader discourse on interoperability in military doctrine and risk science, offering practical insights for improving NATO’s operational effectiveness.