Do gold prices respond to real interest rates? Evidence from the Bayesian Markov switching VECM model
Journal article
Authors | Apergis, Nicholas, Apergis, Hercules, Cooray, Arusha and Khraief, Naceur |
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Abstract | The goal of this paper is to examine the transmission dynamics between the real interest rate and gold prices in the G7. The methodology follows the Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction (MS-VECM) model, along with regime-dependent impulse response functions, spanning the period 1975 to 2016. The findings suggest a positive association between gold prices and real interest rates, with the estimates remaining consistently positive and statistically significant across all G7 countries. The results indicate that gold prices can provide hedging services against real interest rate movements mainly during recessionary times. Our results continue to be robust when we extend the bivariate version of our modeling approach to include more drivers for gold prices. |
The goal of this paper is to examine the transmission dynamics between the real interest rate and gold prices in the G7. The methodology follows the Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction (MS-VECM) model, along with regime-dependent impulse response functions, spanning the period 1975 to 2016. The findings suggest a positive association between gold prices and real interest rates, with the estimates remaining consistently positive and statistically significant across all G7 countries. The results indicate that gold prices can provide hedging services against real interest rate movements mainly during recessionary times. Our results continue to be robust when we extend the bivariate version of our modeling approach to include more drivers for gold prices. | |
Keywords | gold prices; real interest rates; MS-VECM model |
Year | 2019 |
Journal | Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.12.014 |
Web address (URL) | http://hdl.handle.net/10545/623308 |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | |
hdl:10545/623308 | |
Publication dates | 2019 |
Publication process dates | |
Deposited | 17 Jan 2019, 11:21 |
Accepted | 26 Dec 2018 |
Contributors | University of Piraeu, University of Kent, Sri Lanka Embassy and Université de Tunis |
File | File Access Level Open |
File | File Access Level Open |
File | File Access Level Controlled |
https://repository.derby.ac.uk/item/92z99/do-gold-prices-respond-to-real-interest-rates-evidence-from-the-bayesian-markov-switching-vecm-model
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