A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios

Journal article


Carvalho, J. S., Bruce, G., Rebelo, H., Bocksberger, G., Meyer. C. F. J., Wich. S. and Kuehl, H. S. 2019. A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios. Global Change Biology. 25 (9), pp. 3163-3178. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14671
AuthorsCarvalho, J. S., Bruce, G., Rebelo, H., Bocksberger, G., Meyer. C. F. J., Wich. S. and Kuehl, H. S.
Abstract

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change, and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change-related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best- and a worst-case scenario. Generalised linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent, and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst-case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest-dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species’ ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale.

KeywordsClimate change; exposure; extinction risk; primate
Year2019
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Journal citation25 (9), pp. 3163-3178
PublisherWiley
ISSN 1365-2486
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14671
Web address (URL)https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.14671
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online29 Apr 2019
Publication process dates
Deposited05 Sep 2022
Supplemental file
Permalink -

https://repository.derby.ac.uk/item/9856v/a-global-risk-assessment-of-primates-under-climate-and-land-use-cover-scenarios

Download files

  • 5
    total views
  • 0
    total downloads
  • 0
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Spatio-temporal changes in chimpanzee density and abundance in the Greater Mahale Ecosystem, Tanzania
Carvalho, J. S., Stewart, F. A., Marques, T. A., Bonnin, N., Pintea, L., Chitayat, A., Ingram, R., Moore, R. J. and Piel. A. K. 2022. Spatio-temporal changes in chimpanzee density and abundance in the Greater Mahale Ecosystem, Tanzania. Ecological Applications. pp. 1-41. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1002/eap.2715
Range‐wide indicators of African great ape density distribution
Carvalho, J. S. 2021. Range‐wide indicators of African great ape density distribution. American Journal of Primatology. 83 (12), p. e23338. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.23338
Quantitative Estimates of Glacial Refugia for Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)
Carvalho, J. S. 2021. Quantitative Estimates of Glacial Refugia for Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). American Journal of Primatology. 83 (10), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.23320
Predicting Range Shifts of African Apes and Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Global Change Scenarios
Carvalho, J.S., Bruce, G., Maisels, F., Williamson, E. A., Wich, S., Sop, T. and Kühl, H. S. 2021. Predicting Range Shifts of African Apes and Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Global Change Scenarios. Gorilla Journal. 63, pp. 16-18.
Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios
Carvalho, J. S. 2021. Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios. Diversity and Distributions. 27, pp. 1663-1679. https://doi.org/DOI:10.1111/ddi.13358
Advancing Conservation Planning for Western Chimpanzees Using IUCN/SSC A.P.E.S. – The Case of a Taxon-Specific Database
Carvalho, J. S. 2019. Advancing Conservation Planning for Western Chimpanzees Using IUCN/SSC A.P.E.S. – The Case of a Taxon-Specific Database. Environmental Research Letters. 14, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab1379
Characteristics of Positive Deviants in Western Chimpanzee Populations
Carvalho, J. S. 2019. Characteristics of Positive Deviants in Western Chimpanzee Populations. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 7, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00016
Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) Diet Composition and Food Availability in a Human-Modified Landscape at Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park, Guinea-Bissau
Carvalho, J. S., Vicente, L. and Marques, T. A. 2015. Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) Diet Composition and Food Availability in a Human-Modified Landscape at Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park, Guinea-Bissau. International Journal of Primatology. 36, pp. 802-822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-015-9856-y
Where to Nest? Ecological Determinants of Chimpanzee Nest Abundance and Distribution at the Habitat and Tree Species Scale
Carvalho, J. S., Meyer, C. F. J., Vicente, L. and Marques, T. A. 2014. Where to Nest? Ecological Determinants of Chimpanzee Nest Abundance and Distribution at the Habitat and Tree Species Scale. American Journal of Primatology. 77, pp. 186-199. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajp.22321
Population Status of Pan troglodytes verus in Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park, Guinea-Bissau
Carvalho, J. S., Maques, T. A. and Vicente, L. 2013. Population Status of Pan troglodytes verus in Lagoas de Cufada Natural Park, Guinea-Bissau. PLos ONE. 8 (8), p. e71527. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071527