Predicting Range Shifts of African Apes and Effectiveness of Protected Areas under Global Change Scenarios

Given a burgeoning human population and rapidly-growing global demand for natural resources, reconciling biodiversity conservation and human-related activities is a fundamental challenge. Tropical forests support at least two-thirds of the world's biodiversity, providing important ecosystem services at both global and local scales. However, a decline of 3% in global forest cover was reported between 2010 and 2015, with the highest rates of land-use change and degradation found in the tropics, where deforestation rates exceeded five million hectares per year. Africa had an annual rate of net forest loss at 3.9 million hectares between 2010 and 2020, and has up to 400 million hectares of forest that could potentially be used for agricultural expansion. Therefore, continued widespread expansion of agriculture is likely. Moreover, the African continent is the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and future droughts, floods and other extreme weather events will lead to the expansion of agriculture into more humid tropical areas. These areas are where great apes live and are generally high in biodiversity.