Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Journal article


Carvalho, J. S. 2021. Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios. Diversity and Distributions. 27, pp. 1663-1679. https://doi.org/DOI:10.1111/ddi.13358
AuthorsCarvalho, J. S.
Abstract

Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Tropical Africa. The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad.

KeywordsBonobo; chimpanzee; climate change
Year2021
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Journal citation27, pp. 1663-1679
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd
ISSN1472-4642
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/DOI:10.1111/ddi.13358
Web address (URL)https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.13358
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Open
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online06 Jun 2021
Publication process dates
Deposited05 Sep 2022
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