Biodiversity–production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes

Journal article


Burian, A., Kremen, C., Shyan-Tau Wu, J., Beckmann, M., Bulling, M., Garibaldi, L., Krisztin, T., Mehrabi, Z., Ramankutty, N. and Seppelt, R. 2024. Biodiversity–production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes. Nature Ecology and Evolution. pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02349-0
AuthorsBurian, A., Kremen, C., Shyan-Tau Wu, J., Beckmann, M., Bulling, M., Garibaldi, L., Krisztin, T., Mehrabi, Z., Ramankutty, N. and Seppelt, R.
Abstract

Intensive agriculture with high reliance on pesticides and fertilizers constitutes a major strategy for ‘feeding the world’. However, such conventional intensification is linked to diminishing returns and can result in ‘intensification traps’—production declines triggered by the negative feedback of biodiversity loss at high input levels. Here we developed a novel framework that accounts for biodiversity feedback on crop yields to evaluate the risk and magnitude of intensification traps. Simulations grounded in systematic literature reviews showed that intensification traps emerge in most landscape types, but to a lesser extent in major cereal production systems. Furthermore, small reductions in maximal production (5–10%) could be frequently transmitted into substantial biodiversity gains, resulting in small-loss large-gain trade-offs prevailing across landscape types. However, sensitivity analyses revealed a strong context dependence of trap emergence, inducing substantial uncertainty in the identification of optimal management at the field scale. Hence, we recommend the development of case-specific safety margins for intensification preventing double losses in biodiversity and food security associated with intensification traps.

KeywordsIntensive agriculture; pesticides and fertilizers; biodiversity ; intensification traps; food security
Year2024
JournalNature Ecology and Evolution
Journal citationpp. 1-18
PublisherNature
ISSN2397-334X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02349-0
Web address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02349-0
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Open
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online06 Mar 2024
Publication process dates
Deposited13 Mar 2024
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