Nowcasting of air pollution episodes in megacities: A case study for Athens, Greece

Journal article


Varotsos, Costas A., Mazei, Yuri, Saldaev, Damir, Efstathiou, Maria, Voronova, Tatiana and Xue, Yong 2021. Nowcasting of air pollution episodes in megacities: A case study for Athens, Greece. Atmospheric Pollution Research. 12 (7), p. 101099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2021.101099
AuthorsVarotsos, Costas A., Mazei, Yuri, Saldaev, Damir, Efstathiou, Maria, Voronova, Tatiana and Xue, Yong
Abstract

The main objective of the present study is to develop a model for the prediction of the extreme events of air pollution in megacities using the concept of so-called "natural time" instead of the "conventional clock time". In particular, we develop a new nowcasting technique based on a statistically significant fit to the law of Gutenberg-Richter of the surface concentration of ozone (O3), particles of the size fraction less than 10 μm (PM-10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Studying the air pollution over Athens, Greece during the period 2000–2018, we found that the average waiting time between successive extreme concentrations values varied between different atmospheric parameters accounted as 17 days in case of O3, 29 days in case of PM-10 and 28 days in case of NO2. This average waiting time depends on the upper threshold of the maximum extreme concentrations of air pollutants considered. For instance, considering the NO2 concentrations over Athens it was found that the average waiting time is 13 days for 130 μg/m3 and 2.4 years for 200 μg/m3. Remarkably, the same behaviour of obedience to the Guttenberg-Richter law characterizing the extreme values of the air pollution of a megacity was found earlier in other long-term ecological and paleoclimatic variables. It is a sign of self-similarity that is often observed in nature, which can be used in the development of more reliable nowcasting models of extreme events.

KeywordsWaste Management and Disposal; Big Data
Year2021
JournalAtmospheric Pollution Research
Journal citation12 (7), p. 101099
PublisherElsevier BV
ISSN1309-1042
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2021.101099
Web address (URL)http://hdl.handle.net/10545/625861
https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
hdl:10545/625861
Publication dates02 Jun 2021
Publication process dates
Deposited09 Jul 2021, 11:59
Accepted29 May 2021
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© 2021 Turkish National Committee for Air Pollution Research and Control. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attribution 4.0 International

ContributorsUniversity of Athens, Athens, Greece, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow, Russia, Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen, China, China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Geoinformat, Xuzhou, 221116, Jiangsu, PR China and University of Derby
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