Judgemental Adjustments in Forecasting Uncertain Product Demand

Organisations may employ various tools to enhance their overall forecasting accuracy due to the uncertainty of
historical data. Most of these tools are quantitative and utilize the organization's past sales data to identify demand
patterns and predict future demand. However, since historical data may not accurately reflect future events, it is necessary to make judgemental adjustments to the forecasts. Judgemental adjustments are commonly used in uncertain product demand forecasting. Our analysis of a manufacturing organization's use of judgemental adjustments revealed that the decision-making process was insufficiently robust and systematic. To address this issue, we propose a novel decision-making framework that provides practitioners with a repeatable and clear process for making judgemental adjustments to forecasts.